… A better way to forecast the election results — potentially, at least — is to uncover the underlying fundamentals that propel an electorate to vote the way it does, and to combine them in some rigorous, standard fashion based on America’s voting history. … Prof. James Campbell of the […] Read more »
Romney’s chief opponent is not Obama. It’s time.
… When Republicans miss a step or drag their feet, the odds that Obama will win a second term rise. When economic news is front and center, those odds decline. If everything stays the same from one day to the next, the odds list toward Obama for the simple reason […] Read more »
This Year, a Weak Economy Is a Relative Term
… Has the economy lost some of its ability to influence politics? Not at all, says Ray C. Fair, the Yale economics professor who uses economic data to predict presidential elections. As the final stretch of the campaign begins, Professor Fair’s equations suggest that the economy is a liability for […] Read more »
Election Forecast Models Clouded By Economy’s Slow Growth
… Sophisticated models in the past have bolstered arguments that presidential elections are mostly predetermined by the economy. This time, some concede that the plodding recovery may not tilt the balance toward either candidate. Instead, the costly, cross-country political campaign, which these forecasters have dismissed as irrelevant, may tip the […] Read more »
National Conditions and Incumbency Model: Forecast
Now that I have final summer data from the Survey and Consumers I can generate a forecast from my National Conditions and Incumbency model. The gist of my model is that the incumbent presidential party is held accountable for prevailing national conditions but that the level of accountability depends upon […] Read more »
Most Americans Still Predict Obama Will Win 2012 Election
Most Americans believe President Obama will win the presidential election this fall, even though the race has been highly competitive for most of the year. Americans’ expectation that Obama will win has been remarkably consistent, virtually unchanged since May despite three intervening months of campaigning. [cont.] Jeffrey M. Jones, Gallup Read more »