72 hours from election day! Who’s going to win? Nate Silver says that “For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased.” I think this is correct. … That said, I do believe that there is a substantial chance that the state polls are a biased prediction of where […] Read more »
For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased
… There were 22 polls of swing states published Friday. Of these, Mr. Obama led in 19 polls, and two showed a tie. Mitt Romney led in just one of the surveys, a Mason-Dixon poll of Florida. Although the fact that Mr. Obama held the lead in so many polls […] Read more »
Forecasting Tuesday
Less than a week before the election, many observers across the political spectrum say that they believe a victory for President Obama is highly likely. Others say that it’s reckless to predict the future with any kind of certainty. Nate Silver of the New York Times FiveThirtyEight blog explains to […] Read more »
Interactive Graphic: 512 Paths to the White House
Select a winner in the most competitive states below to see all the paths to victory available for either candidate. [cont.] Mike Bostock & Shan Carter, New York Times Read more »
On the Big Night, Forecasters Strain to Make Correct Call
Behind the decisions that news organizations will make Tuesday night about when to call states for either presidential candidate lies a complex mix of polling, vote counts, statistical models and subjective judgment. Already a consortium of five television networks and the Associated Press has been funding phone surveys to determine […] Read more »
Book Review Podcast: Nate Silver on the Art of Predictions
This week in The New York Times Book Review, Noam Scheiber reviews “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail — but Some Don’t,” by Nate Silver. … On this week’s podcast, Mr. Silver talks about his book. [cont.] New York Times Read more »