Mitt Romney has always had difficulty drawing a winning Electoral College hand. Even during his best period of polling, in the week or two after the first presidential debate in Denver, he never quite pulled ahead in the polling averages in Ohio and other states that would allow him to […] Read more »
I Can Read Faces! My Wager On The Election Results
On the eve of Election Day, I am a happy man. Why is this, you ask? Because the fundamentals-based forecasts issued by almost a dozen political scientists before Labor Day are – in the aggregate – looking remarkably prescient. [cont.] Matthew Dickinson, Middlebury College Read more »
Election Update: Election Eve
Tomorrow night (or more likely Wednesday morning), someone is going to look pretty bad. It might be the pollsters who have continually insisted on using a 2008 model for their polls. Or it will be pollsters like us and other analysts who have criticized the 2008 model as unrealistic and […] Read more »
LD Vote Predict final model: Obama 72.9 vs. Romney 27.1, among Latino voters
Over the final several weeks of polling … the LD Vote Predict estimates for presidential vote choice have been quite stable, leading us to our final projection for a breakdown among actual Latino voters who choose one of the two main candidates and no undecided voters: Obama 73%, Romney 27%. […] Read more »
A heavily weighted coin flip
If there is one thing America’s right- and left-leaning media seem to agree on as election day looms, it is that Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are locked in an exceedingly close and unpredictable race for the presidency. … Strangely, what might be the least controversial notion in contemporary American […] Read more »
Projection: Obama Will Likely Win Second Term
With a slight, unexpected lift provided by Hurricane Sandy, Mother Nature’s October surprise, President Barack Obama appears poised to win his second term tomorrow. Our final Electoral College projection has the president winning the key swing states of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Wisconsin and topping Mitt Romney, […] Read more »