I’m traveling for Thanksgiving, so we’ll keep this relatively brief. But I thought this map was worth sharing. It shows how President Obama and Mitt Romney performed on Election Day relative to the FiveThirtyEight forecasts in each state, based on the ballots counted so far. [cont.] Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight (NYT) Read more »
What Nate Silver really accomplished
… I believe people are seriously misstating what Silver achieved. It isn’t that he predicted the election right where others botched it. It’s that he popularized a way of thinking about polling, a way to navigate through conflicting numbers and speculation, that would still have remained invaluable even if he’d […] Read more »
Nate Silver discusses election polling on MSNBC’s Morning Joe
Nate Silver discusses election polling on MSNBC’s Morning Joe. Visit NBCNews.com for breaking news, world news, and news about the economy Read more »
Crowds Are This Election’s Real Winners
Forget about Obama versus Romney. The real contest in the 2012 election was about analytics. … In the latest skirmish, the quants won. They predicted the election outcome far more accurately than the pundits did. Therein lies a lesson for executives and policy makers alike: Wisdom and intuition may actually […] Read more »
Votamatic: Evaluating the Forecasting Model
Since June, I’ve been updating the site with election forecasts and estimates of state-level voter preferences based on a statistical model that combines historical election data with the results of hundreds of state-level opinion polls. … With the election results (mostly) tallied, it’s possible to do a detailed retrospective evaluation […] Read more »
More Evidence Regarding Importance of Economic Fundamentals in 2012 US Presidential Election
On August 1, 2012, we prepared a forecast of the 2012 presidential vote for PS. Our model contains two variables: (1) the cumulated weighted growth in leading economic indicators (LEI) through the 13th quarter of the current presidential term and (2) the incumbent party candidate’s share in the most recent […] Read more »