… We’ve long believed that physical crowds are emotional, irrational and prone to violence. Over the last decade, we’ve come to think of virtual crowds as sources of wisdom that can’t be found in individuals. Both these ideas treat crowds as entities, rather than groups of people — an idea […] Read more »
Was it hurricane Sandy that won it for President Obama?
Many forecasted that Mitt Romney would defeat President Obama in the 2012 presidential election. They were wrong. Some of those who were incorrect took it in stride and admitted as much. Others, such as Twitter sensation and National Review blogger Josh Jordan (aka NumbersMuncher), decided that their logic was sound, […] Read more »
Why economists love Intrade — and why the government hates it
Economists love prediction markets like Intrade. But the U.S. government has long been skeptical of such sites. Is it time for that change? That question popped up again this week after federal regulators filed a lawsuit against Intrade, a popular Web site that allows people to wager on the outcome […] Read more »
Authors at Google: Nate Silver
Nate Silver joins Hal Varian (Google’s Chief Economist) to talk about his book “The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don’t” and answer Googler questions. Read more »
What if there are fewer polls in 2016?
… [Gallup’s Frank] Newport warned in a post-election commentary that because of the popularity of aggregators like [Nate] Silver, “We could see significantly fewer polls conducted in the 2016 election—at the state and national level—than in this election.” … Instead of being frightened by Newport’s nightmare vision of a 2016 presidential […] Read more »
The folly of making political prediction markets like Intrade illegal
On Monday the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) sued offshore prediction market operator Intrade, prompting it to close its doors to U.S. customers. This will likely kill Intrade in its current form. … Why prohibit something so harmless? After all, U.S. policy already allows many forms of gambling that […] Read more »