The Democracy Data Revolution: Simon Jackman at TEDxSydney Read more »
Nate Silver: The Data Demystifier
… Evaluating the ingenuity of Silver’s mathematical models can be difficult. But it’s easy to admire his accuracy and the savvy with which he chooses the problems he wants to solve. “I’ve tried to pick fields where the competition was not that good,” he says, laughing. He’s actually serious. When […] Read more »
Does Gomez Have a Real Chance in Massachusetts?
A common cognitive bias in political analysis is what Daniel Kahneman calls the availability heuristic: the tendency to focus on recent or familiar examples as opposed to the broader course of history and the richer volume of precedents. There is some risk of this in Massachusetts, where the Democrat Martha […] Read more »
How good is ADP at forecasting the monthly BLS jobs reports?
… Jobs reports used to be exciting only for economists and stockbrokers, but since the election season, every political junkie and their dog seems to have taken an interest. People recognize that the economy plays a vital role in deciding votes; these reports, therefore, offer a vital clue to predicting […] Read more »
Intrade, We Hardly Knew Ye
… Beyond the gambling fun, Intrade was believed to be very useful for those interested in forecasting elections. Polls have the disadvantage of being meaningful and accurate only within a few months—or weeks—of an election, since most voters aren’t well aware of the candidates or issues until then. By contrast, […] Read more »
Election of a Pope Tests Betting Markets
Intrade may have shut down, but the election of a pope still offers a good chance to study the predictive value of betting odds. … There are no polls of the 115 cardinals who will be making the decision – at least no public polls – and no are other […] Read more »