Longtime readers will know that I was a big fan of Drew Linzer’s 2012 presidential forecast model contained at his Votamatic website, and not just because he was kind enough fly out here to give a talk to Middlebury students during the middle of the presidential campaign. Linzer’s model, you […] Read more »
Senate Control May Turn on Who’s More Unloved, Obama or G.O.P.
With the campaign season officially begun, Republicans hold a modest but clear advantage in the fight for control of the Senate. … Whether the Democrats can keep the game close to the end, or whether the Republicans will build an even larger advantage, turns on one big question about the […] Read more »
FiveThirtyEight’s Senate Model Is Back And It Gives Republicans The Edge
The FiveThirtyEight Senate model is launching Wednesday. We’ll be rolling it out in stages, with additional features, functionality and further methodological detail. We’ll also be unveiling our new set of pollster ratings and publicly releasing our database of all the polls used to calculate them. So there’s a lot more […] Read more »
Daily Kos Elections Poll Explorer says Democrats have 47% chance of holding the Senate (right now)
Daily Kos Elections is pleased to announce the introduction of its Poll Explorer! The Poll Explorer is a statistical model that allows us to track public opinion in each Senate and gubernatorial race this year, and from there, predict the likely outcome of each race and the number of seats […] Read more »
Is The Polling Industry In Stasis Or In Crisis?
… I’ve spent much of the past few weeks updating our polling database in preparation for the launch of our 2014 Senate forecasts. In conjunction with those forecasts, we’ll also release our first full set of pollster ratings since 2010. But for now, my aim will be to consider the […] Read more »
Is the race for control of the Senate over already?
The midterm contest is almost over and the Republicans are winning. That, at least, is the impression left by some modelers and other analysts. But three months out from November, many questions are still left to be answered before the ballots can be counted. For politics aficionados, half a dozen […] Read more »