Democrats need a net gain of 17 seats to retake the House of Representatives — but election analysts are unanimous that that’s incredibly unlikely to happen this year. … Forget this year, then — what about the rest of the decade? Unfortunately for Democrats, they face some serious disadvantages in […] Read more »
Republicans Remain Slightly Favored To Take Control Of The Senate
If Americans elected an entirely new set of senators every two years — as they elect members of the House of Representatives — this November’s Senate contest would look like a stalemate. … The problem for Democrats is that this year’s Senate races aren’t being fought in neutral territory. Instead, […] Read more »
Crystal-Ball Gazing on the Senate Races
Every election cycle is different. Each has a unique political environment and set of circumstances, all of which keep elections interesting. Aside from the extremely competitive fight over the Senate, the biggest change this time around is the multitude of Senate forecasts using quantitative election models of various types; these […] Read more »
What’s the Matter With Kansas — And Hawaii?
Royal Blue Hawaii and Ruby Red Kansas are two of the most predictable states in presidential and Senate elections. Yet both states have incumbent governors from the dominant parties who are fighting for their political lives. What gives? The 2014 gubernatorial map features a number of fascinating races, some of […] Read more »
Goodbye to the Republican Wave?
Republicans entered this election cycle with high hopes. President Obama’s approval ratings had sunk into the low 40s, and the rollout of the Affordable Care Act had been an unmitigated disaster. … This year seemed poised to turn into another so-called wave election, like in 2006 or 2010, when a […] Read more »
Who Will Win The Senate? A Primer on Midterm Forecasts
With the nominating phase of the congressional campaign just about over and the midterm elections less than four months away, you are going to see an increasing number of predictions, prognostications and more than a few statistically-driven forecast models purporting to tell us how the Republicans and Democrats are going […] Read more »