For several months, we’ve held steady on our range of expected gains for Republicans in the Senate: a net of four to eight seats. With Labor Day in the rearview mirror and with less than 55 days to go until the midterms, we’re giving Republicans a slight bump: Our new […] Read more »
Democrats Now Have a Seventy-Per-Cent Chance of Retaining Control of the Senate
… Because polls have better predictive value than fundamentals do, it would seem prudent to ask what an unadulterated poll-based snapshot of the Senate race looks like. … But can a snapshot of today’s polls really tell us that much about an election held eight weeks from now? As it […] Read more »
Registered Voter Polls Will (Usually) Overrate Democrats
… Polls of so-called likely voters are almost always more favorable to Republicans than those that survey the broader sample of all registered voters or all American adults. Likely voter polls also tend to provide more reliable predictions of election results, especially in midterm years. Whereas polls of all registered […] Read more »
Stu Rothenberg: Senate Republicans Gain At Least 7 Seats
While the current Rothenberg Political Report ratings don’t show it, I am now expecting a substantial Republican Senate wave in November, with a net gain of at least seven seats. But I wouldn’t be shocked by a larger gain. CONT. Stu Rothenberg, Roll Call Read more »
Betting Markets Not Budging Over Poll on Scottish Independence
A poll published over the weekend suggesting that a majority of Scots will vote for independence Sept. 18 has both tanked the British pound and put the issue squarely in the international spotlight. … But political prediction markets, in which people bet on the likely outcome, are all about evaluating […] Read more »
Republicans keep edge in latest Senate midterm estimate
If the midterm elections were held today, we might all be in for a late night. Republicans remain more likely to control the Senate, but that estimate is underpinned by very tight races throughout. Many key Senate battleground contests in our latest Battleground Tracker model show just a point or […] Read more »