… I’m as geeky as they come, but I don’t see much point in arguing over which forecasting model is more accurate when we can just hold on for another 46 days, and then we’ll know for sure. The purpose of political science is not to give us a six-week […] Read more »
How The FiveThirtyEight Senate Forecast Model Works
The FiveThirtyEight Senate forecast model launched earlier this month. Right now, it shows Republicans with about a 53 percent chance of picking up the Senate next year. We owe you a lot more detail about how that forecast is calculated and how it might change between now and Nov. 4 […] Read more »
Video: Will the GOP take control of the Senate?
Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium discusses Senate poll trends with Michael Smerconish. Read more »
Nate Silver vs. Sam Wang on Midterm Polling
On Monday, Nate Silver was on the show to discuss FiveThirtyEight’s midterm forecast, which favors the GOP, and dismissed Sam Wang’s forecast heavily favoring Democrats. We follow up with Sam Wang on his model, and what leads different statistical wranglers to come to such different conclusions. The Brian Lehrer Show […] Read more »
Democrats Are Seeing More Daylight in Path to Senate Control
A few months ago, the Democratic path to a Senate majority looked long and arduous. It has started to look easier. CONT. Nate Cohn, New York Times Read more »
How Awful Will It Be?
In bad midterm-election years, members of a president’s party often find the political climate challenging. In some ways, it is like a swimmer encountering riptides or facing strong undertows. The degree of the danger varies from location to location, and in many cases, weak swimmers struggle in this environment; occasionally, […] Read more »