Monday featured a reasonably good set of polls for Republicans. … Republican chances of winning the Senate are 65 percent according to our latest forecast, slightly improved from Sunday. But we’ve talked plenty about races like Colorado. So let’s try something a little different: Considering those races that looked as […] Read more »
Voters Expect Republican Wins, in Kansas and Elsewhere
Polls typically ask people which candidate they want to win. But some researchers have come to believe that another question — which candidate they expect to win — produces more meaningful results. When people are asked about their expectations, some may actually give more honest answers about their own voting […] Read more »
Senate Update: The Republican Advantage Is Consistent But Not Decisive
If you’re a regular reader of FiveThirtyEight you’ll know that our Senate forecast has said pretty much the same thing every day. When we officially launched our model in early September, it gave Republicans a 64 percent chance of winning a majority in the Senate. Today, the number is similar: […] Read more »
A Republican Edge, With More Stability
The Republicans still hold an edge in what has become a very stable fight for the Senate, according to the last round of data from the New York Times/CBS News/YouGov survey of more than 80,000 respondents. CONT. Nate Cohn, New York Times Read more »
Republicans Are Surging in the Prediction Markets
Is there now a clear leader in the race for control of the Senate? I think so, but it really depends on whether you’re listening to the polls or the prediction markets. CONT. Justin Wolfers, New York Times Read more »
Senate v. Electoral College
The race for the control of the U.S. senate feels a lot like the race for control of the Electoral College (i.e., president), but there are a few crucial differences. First, the only thing that matters after the Electoral College convenes is who won the Electoral College, but minority party […] Read more »