For much of this election cycle, Democrats complained the polls were biased against them. They said the polls were failing to represent enough minority voters and applying overly restrictive likely-voter screens. They claimed early-voting data was proving the polls wrong. They cited the fact that polls were biased against Democrats […] Read more »
Final Update: Republicans Have A 3 In 4 Chance Of Winning The Senate
After two months of forecasting, it comes down to this: Republicans are favored to win the Senate. Their chances of doing so are 76 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s Senate forecast, which is principally based on an analysis of the polls in each state and the historical accuracy of Senate polling. […] Read more »
How Big a Night Will It Be for the GOP?
The odds of Republicans winning a Senate majority are obviously getting very high. Indeed, it would be a real shocker if Democrats held the GOP to a net gain of five seats or less, preventing a takeover of the majority. Unresolved, however, remains the question of just how big a […] Read more »
Are The State Polls Skewed?
… Last month, I examined the possibility that Senate polls could prove to be biased or “skewed” against Democrats. If the polls have even a modest bias against Democrats, the party’s chances of keeping the Senate would be more like 50-50. And if the polls have a more severe anti-Democratic […] Read more »
FiveThirtyEight’s Gubernatorial Forecasts: A Lot Of Really Close Races
Most of our focus this year has been on the battle for the U.S. Senate. But 36 states will hold gubernatorial elections Tuesday. We hope it’s not too late to give you some polling-based forecasts of how they might turn out. CONT. Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Bet on a Republican Senate Majority
While many races remain close, it’s just getting harder and harder to envision a plausible path for the Democrats to retain control of the Senate. Ultimately, with just a few days to go before the election, the safe bet would be on Republicans eventually taking control of the upper chamber. […] Read more »