President Biden’s news conference on Wednesday was designed to kick off a second-year reset of his presidency… and our new NBC News poll suggests Mr. Biden needs one. NBC News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
Five Warning Signs for Biden as He Marks First Anniversary in Office
Key Points• As Joe Biden marks a year in office, he has found himself in a perilous position, and there are no obvious signs of improvement.• Among Biden’s challenges is an apparently weakened position among nonwhite voters as well as younger voters, two immensely important pillars of the Democratic coalition.• […] Read more »
It’s Foolish to Predict the Midterms Until We Know Covid’s Future
… In sharp contrast to everyone else doom scrolling about the pandemic, political handicappers seem determined to treat 2022 as an ordinary election year. As a result, we are awash in glib forecasts about how the inflation rate, Biden’s approval numbers, or the Democratic stalemate on Capitol Hill will determine […] Read more »
Can Democrats Fall In Love With the 2022 Senate Map?
… As our politics has become more and more nationalized, it’s gotten harder for an individual Senate candidate to perform much better (or worse) than the presidential nominee from his/her party. That’s both good news and bad news for Democrats. Democrats don’t need to ‘outperform’ Biden’s showing in order to […] Read more »
House Republicans’ Drive to 35
Key Points• With some key national factors seemingly in their favor, Republicans could win a healthy majority in the House in 2022 — perhaps even their biggest in nearly a century.• However, compared to past Republican midterm wave cycles, specifically 1994 and 2010, Republicans probably have less room for growth.• […] Read more »
Don’t rule out a GOP Senate wave
As usual, Democrats are fighting among themselves — this time about what to do with the Senate filibuster. … The irony here is that while some Democrats worry that carving out an exception to the filibuster might set a bad precedent, the imbalance in the three Senate classes, which I […] Read more »