Most polls you’re looking at right now are likely underestimating Republicans’ position heading into the midterm election cycle. It’s not that the polls are “wrong.” Rather, it’s that most polls at this point are asking all registered voters who they’re going to vote for in November, when it’s likely only […] Read more »
Dems’ Problems Bigger Than Redistricting
A question I’m getting asked a lot these days is: “What does President Biden need to do to turn this midterm election around?” To many, it seems like a political version of a Rubik’s Cube, a puzzle ready and waiting to be solved with the right approach. Don’t be so […] Read more »
Hotline’s Senate Power Rankings
Democrats had a rough 2021, and entering 2022, things still look bleak. A president’s party typically loses seats in their first midterm election, and President Biden doesn’t look to be an exception to that rule at the moment, with his approval rating mired in the low 40s. While the House […] Read more »
Are any deep blue Senate seats in danger for Democrats?
As Democrats attempt to defend their Senate majority, they hold 4 seats that both sides see as prime Republican targets: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire. Given Biden’s poor numbers and the usual problems the presidential party has in midterms, Republicans have a prime opportunity to flip 1 or more […] Read more »
Senate Democrats May Have Further To Fall In 2024
My friends who are Democrats, particularly those of the more progressive variety, don’t seem to understand how deep they are in the political hole this year—and just how hard it might be to get out of it in 2024, particularly in the Senate. On a basic level, midterm elections are […] Read more »
If history’s a guide, Biden ain’t getting any stronger
President Joe Biden’s weak political standing looks like cement around the feet of the Democratic majorities in Congress. And even though the 2022 midterm elections are still more than 10 months away, history tells us Biden’s job rating isn’t likely to improve and more likely will deteriorate before Election Day. […] Read more »