Among the most frequently cited observations about politics — along with “it all comes down to turnout” and “a week is a lifetime” — is this factoid about midterm elections: “Since World War II, the party holding the White House has suffered an average loss of 26 House seats and […] Read more »
Why Sarah Palin isn’t the clear favorite to win the Alaska special election
My columns are often about which candidates are most likely to win elections. But every so often, there are elections that are so difficult to handicap that I throw my hands up in frustration. The upcoming US House special election in Alaska is one of those. Former GOP Gov. Sarah […] Read more »
How Big Is The House Playing Field?
This week, Democratic and Republican campaign operations acknowledged that the House playing field is expanding. The NRCC added another 10 House districts to its already robust list of 72 Democratic-held targets. And on the Democratic side, the House Majority PAC announced it would be reserving nearly $102 million in advertising […] Read more »
How to predict an election
For as long as elections have taken place someone has tried to predict what might happen. From polls to prediction models, uncertainty is always inevitable. What’s the best way to do it? The Economist The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s […] Read more »
Are the 2022 midterms a done deal?
Mid-term season is upon us. All signs point to it going well for the GOP; in fact, our preliminary forecast gives Democrats just a one in ten chance of retaining control of both the Senate and the House. The big question is less “Will the Republicans win,” but, “How much […] Read more »
Foreign Policy Unlikely To Save Democrats in the Fall
… While we don’t know the trajectory that the Russia/Ukraine crisis will take, and there are many factors that can impact on midterm elections, we do know that in the absence of a large number of U.S. military deaths, Americans rarely vote on foreign-policy issues, particularly in midterms. The state […] Read more »