Three-quarters of the way through the midterm election cycle, it doesn’t look like anything will change the ominous forecast for Democrats. And Republicans remain well-positioned to take back Congress this fall. There’s a difference between historic events and game-changing events (events that change the trajectory of an election cycle). A […] Read more »
Charlie Cook Discusses Campaign 2022 & Political News of the Day
Charlie Cook of the Cook Political Report and National Journal discusses Campaign 2022 and political news of the day. Washington Journal, C-SPAN Read more »
Notes on the State of the Senate: The overall picture for November, and the looming primaries in May
… As we assess the Senate map right now, we do currently see the Republicans as favorites to take the majority. This is because, of the most competitive seats — the ones we call Toss-ups — Republicans are defending just 1 (Pennsylvania) and Democrats are defending 3 (Arizona, Georgia, and […] Read more »
Are Democrats Headed for a Shellacking in the Midterm Election?
Key Points• Presidential party midterm losses are a regular feature of American politics.• President Biden’s numbers are weak as well. But it may be that Democrats are insulated in some ways from a potential “shellacking.”• Democrats are very likely to lose their House majority, although their total net loss is […] Read more »
A recession would only deepen Democratic woes
As awful as the last 15 months have been for Democrats since they completed the electoral trifecta of winning control of the White House, the House, and the Senate, there is a strong chance that things get a lot worse. Last summer it was Afghanistan that began to weigh down […] Read more »
Treating Politics Like the NCAA Tournament
According to the PredictIt betting odds, there is an 84 percent chance that Republicans will capture the House in November, a 77 percent chance that the GOP wins a Senate majority, and a 72 percent chance that Republicans end up controlling both. Generally speaking, I am not a big fan […] Read more »