President Biden and former president Trump don’t have a lot in common. But, they share the inauspicious distinction of having the lowest approval ratings in modern history for a president 500 days into his first term. The fivethirtyeight.com tracker has Biden’s net approval rating at a dismal -13.3, two points […] Read more »
How the House Landscape Changed
Key Points• The new House landscape is fairly similar to the old one.• However, there is a notable increase in the number of super-safe Republican seats — and a modest decline in the overall number of competitive districts.• New Hampshire, the final state to complete redistricting, kept its old map […] Read more »
Even in a Great Year, Republicans’ Winnable Seats Are Limited
Just as it is rare for rivers to reverse their flow, in the last six months before a midterm election the clear direction of that campaign almost never reverses. Midterm elections are almost always referenda on the sitting president and governing party, with the cumulative impressions of how that president […] Read more »
The Outlook for the 2022 Senate Elections: A State-by-State Analysis
Key Points• Senate elections have become firmly yoked to their state’s presidential leanings.• Democrats now hold a tiny Senate majority in large part because of their superior performance in otherwise Republican-leaning states, a performance they may find difficult to sustain because of deepening partisan polarization.• Based on the fundamentals of […] Read more »
Are We Overestimating Roe’s Impact on Politics?
Everyone has their own take on what impact a reversal of Roe v. Wade will have on November’s midterm elections. Here’s mine: To the extent that overturning the 49-year old decision benefits Democrats at all, it won’t be nearly enough to make up for the substantial headwinds they were already […] Read more »
The Kinds of Seats that Flip in Midterms
Key Points• While increasingly salient issues like abortion could change the political environment, Republicans still appear on track for a strong showing in the U.S. House.• Recent midterms have hollowed out the presidential party’s holdings of districts where the president either did the same or worse than he did nationally […] Read more »