The Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade is a historic event, but it will take at least a few weeks, if not longer, to know whether it is an election-changing event. Arguably the worst time to measure the political impact of an event is while it is still […] Read more »
Politics in the Post-Roe World
Key Points• The president’s party often struggles in midterms, although extraordinary circumstances can save them from losses. The Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe vs. Wade could be 2022’s extraordinary circumstance.• Beyond abortion, Republicans still retain powerful political advantages.• Democrats could get their version of 2018’s “Kavanaugh Effect.”• 2022 won’t definitively […] Read more »
Biden’s Economic Woes
This has been a transitory year, from the pandemic to inflation, and now possibly to recession. The Fed just raised interest rates by 0.75% in hopes of stemming inflation. Will it work? Or will it kick start an economic dip? We will see. But negative economic indicators are all around […] Read more »
What the Polls Can (And Can’t) Tell Us
For the last couple of years, I’ve stressed that when it comes to campaign polling, it’s more important to focus on the vote share each candidate is getting than it is to obsess about the margin that separates the two candidates. The fact that a candidate is ‘ahead’ of another […] Read more »
Will 2022 tell us about 2024?
While no one knows exactly how bad this year will be for Democrats, every serious analyst recognizes 2022 is unlikely to be good for my party. Whatever the precise outcome, too many will blithely assume that the 2022 results will yield significant insights into President Biden’s prospects in 2024. History […] Read more »
Usual Midterm Indicators Very Unfavorable for Democrats
With less than five months to go before voters elect all members of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate, the current Democratic congressional majority is facing an extremely unfavorable election environment. The party of the president typically loses U.S. House seats in midterm elections — an average […] Read more »