In a notable reversal from typical trends, Republicans took the lead in polling averages of the congressional generic-ballot question in late 2021 and have remained a few percentage points ahead of Democrats since. What does that mean for November? Probably less than you think. This survey question—used because it isn’t […] Read more »
Here’s why Democrats could keep the Senate
Election Day 2022 is now four months away. Democrats are trying to hold on to slim majorities in both the House and Senate. They’re doing so against the backdrop of high inflation and an economy viewed in poor shape, which is the issue dominating voters’ minds. I’ve generally been high […] Read more »
I don’t buy GOP will definitely win Senate after SCOTUS decisions: Silver
FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver breaks down how the recent landmark Supreme Court decisions will affect the midterm elections on “This Week.” CONTINUED This Week, ABC News The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s FREE. Sign up here: opiniontoday.substack Read more »
Just How Strong Will The Winds Be Blowing This Fall?
… The overturning of Roe v. Wade has raised the stakes of this election for Democratic-leaning voters like no other issue has yet to do this cycle. For the first time in 50 years, the debate about abortion access is not ‘theoretical.’ It is also not a “one-off issue.” The […] Read more »
Has Abortion Changed the Subject in the Minds of Enough Voters?
Anyone who’s sure they know what the midterm-election implications of the events over the last few weeks will be is a) a fool, b) a cheerleader, c) really new to politics, or d) some combination of those. Until there is a whole lot more polling data, certainty is folly. A […] Read more »
A handful of voters will decide Senate control in 2022
If you are from New York, Nebraska, Oregon, Vermont or Mississippi, you have the same right to vote that everyone else in the country does. But that doesn’t mean that you will have the same political clout. In fact, you are likely to be irrelevant in this fall’s elections. … […] Read more »