On paper, the November midterm elections should be a disaster of epic proportions for Democrats. Midterms are bad enough for any party holding the White House. When a party controls both chambers in Congress, it can be particularly treacherous. There’s no effective way to point a finger or shift the […] Read more »
House Rating Changes: More Movement Toward Republicans
Key Points• We are making 10 House rating changes, 9 of which benefit Republicans.• Our overall best guess at the net change in the House — a GOP gain somewhere in the 20s — remains unchanged.• We don’t see a huge impact, so far, from the Supreme Court’s landmark abortion […] Read more »
What Could Save Democrats From a Midterm Catastrophe?
At a time when very little if anything is “normal” about American politics, we have come to expect the unexpected. While the House looks very, very likely to flip into Republican hands and the Senate more likely than not, what kind of event might keep at least one if not […] Read more »
Confused about 2022? You should be
I’ve seen more than a few election cycles, but I’m not certain I have seen many that are more confusing than the one we are now in. Which “rules” of handicapping still hold in the current environment, and which fell by the wayside as our parties changed, our political institutions […] Read more »
Will Biden and Trump face off again in 2024?
… First-term presidents are usually their party’s nominee in the next election. Aside from that, however, conventional wisdom suggests it’s too early to say who the 2024 contenders will be. We’re not so sure. We believe that even this early, we can gain insight into who the nominees will be […] Read more »
House Math and History
Just about every election analyst and handicapper agrees that the House is all-but-certain to flip. The only disagreement these days is how many seats Republicans will gain. On paper, the grim political environment suggests the kind of wave election that rivals the wipeouts of 1994 and 2010, when the party […] Read more »