Key Points• In an election where Republicans are banking on the environment while Democrats are banking on differences in candidate quality, Republicans are relying on a very inexperienced group of candidates.• Compared to 2014, the last time Republicans flipped the Senate, the party’s non-incumbent candidates are incredibly green.• Democrats, meanwhile, […] Read more »
How Republicans could still blow the 2022 midterm elections
Sometimes polling trends meet your expectations. For example, you might expect a president’s approval rating to be low when we’re dealing with high inflation and negative growth in real disposable income per capita. Sometimes, however, trends in public opinion are surprising. Even as President Joe Biden’s approval rating languishes south […] Read more »
Beyond approval numbers: GOP’s midterm prospects aren’t a sure thing
One of the most reliable rules of American politics is that a president’s first-term midterm elections are bad for the president’s party. Since 1950, the president’s party has gained seats in the first midterm only once, in 2002, the first national election after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. […] Read more »
Republicans lead race for House control at start of 2022 campaign — CBS News Battleground Tracker
The CBS News Battleground Tracker model finds Republicans start the 2022 campaign with a lead in the race for the House, with 230 seats to 205 seats for Democrats. The party with 218 seats controls the House. Control of Congress is won and lost in districts, of course, so to […] Read more »
Midterm Misery for Biden as Key Economy Gauge Flags 30-Seat Loss
Whatever else is on Americans’ minds — and that’s a long list right now — the state of the economy looms large in any US election. That spells big trouble for Democrats in November’s midterm vote. A new study by Bloomberg Economics takes one gauge with a knack of predicting […] Read more »
Improvement or Illusion?
Over the last couple of weeks, there’s been a shift in opinion among many political professionals about Democrats’ chances in the midterm campaign. … Yet, there’s nothing new about a late summer ‘reassessment’ of midterm assumptions. In fact, like clockwork, the out-party right about now starts to fret that their […] Read more »