Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell sees the writing on the wall. He thinks the weakness of his party’s Senate nominees may doom his chances of becoming Majority Leader once again. The data support his view. However, there’s a reform that could have avoided this situation – and can potentially help […] Read more »
Vibe Shift
After months of “Democrats are doomed” chatter, there’s been a definite shift in mood and momentum toward the party in power. Republicans are openly fretting about their flawed and under-funded Senate candidates, while Democrats, who not long ago were bemoaning fumbles by the White House and Democratic leadership in Congress, […] Read more »
Is There a Serious Case for a Not-Awful Election for Democrats This Fall?
… The conventional wisdom in Washington would indicate that the Democrats are all but certain to lose the House in 2022, and very likely the Senate, too. The yearlong collapse in Joe Biden’s approval ratings has been seen as a virtual guarantee of this outcome. Biden has become the most […] Read more »
The Gubernatorial Races: Look to the West
Key Points• The 5 governorships we see as Toss-ups are all located west of the eastern time zone: Arizona, Kansas, Nevada, Wisconsin, and — now — Oregon.• The large number of incumbents running this year may limit the number of governorships that change hands.• Democrats continue to have the 2 […] Read more »
Summer Breeze
If last summer’s theme song for Democrats was “Cruel Summer,” this summer should be “Summer Breeze.” By the end of the summer of 2021, the resurgence of COVID (and subsequent scramble for testing and inconsistent advice from government agencies), the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, and rising inflation, […] Read more »
Why the Soothsayers Are So Puzzled by This Year’s Midterms
Doug Sosnik is the kind of political analyst who likes to figure out the results of the next election well in advance — it’s just how he’s wired. But even Sosnik, a former adviser to President Bill Clinton who now tries to forecast elections as a hobby, is stumped about […] Read more »