Democrats are voicing growing confidence about limiting losses in the House and potentially even salvaging their majority in the midterm elections, with candidates and allied groups making moves to capitalize on a backlash to abortion restrictions, signs of improvements in the economy and opposition to Donald Trump. After months of […] Read more »
2022’s (Potential) Split Ticket States
Key Points• Over the past several midterms, the number of states splitting their ticket between Senate and gubernatorial races has gone down.• Still, using more recent history as a guide, it seems likely that at least a few states will cross over.• The states that split their ticket in midterms […] Read more »
Are the Forecast Models just plain Wrong?
I like to put together a little economic forecast model around this point in an election cycle. Not so much because I’m trying to predict what’ll happen — there are more sophisticated ways to do that — but because I want to get a sense of a baseline. That is, […] Read more »
Four’s a trend: Democrats are doing much better in special elections since Roe was overturned
A special election, on its own, cannot tell us much about the political environment. Grouped together, special elections can tell a story. And in the case of special elections for the US House since Roe v. Wade was overturned, the story is clear: The national environment has become far more […] Read more »
Growing Evidence Against a Republican Wave
At the beginning of this year’s midterm campaign, analysts and political operatives had every reason to expect a strong Republican showing this November. President Biden’s approval rating was in the low 40s, and the president’s party has a long history of struggling in midterm elections. But as the start of […] Read more »
Mitch McConnell is right. Senate Republicans have a candidate problem.
We’ve become used to displays of braggadocio by politicians (see former President Donald Trump). That’s why it’s notable when a politician admits that the political winds might not be going their way. Such was the case when Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell said this week that Republicans had a better […] Read more »