It wouldn’t be election eve if pollsters weren’t nervous. At a base level, the final surveys in the states that will determine which party controls the Senate next year fall into two camps. Polls from Republican-affiliated firms point to a GOP victory — and perhaps even a romp through some […] Read more »
Who Will Win the Battle for Congress? Four Scenarios.
Just about anything is still possible in this year’s midterm elections. Everything from a Democratic hold in the Senate and a fairly close race for the House to something like a Republican rout is well within the range of realistic possibilities on Tuesday. Why such a wide range? With so […] Read more »
Final Ratings for the 2022 Election
Key Points• Our final Senate pick is 51-49 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 seat.• Our final House pick is 237-198 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 24 seats.• Our projected gubernatorial picture is 29-21 Republican, or a net Republican gain of 1 governorship. CONTINUED Larry J. […] Read more »
My predictions for the 2022 midterm elections
American politics has been a stalemate between the two parties for nearly 30 years. Every time it looks as though one party gains a lasting upper hand — Democrats after 2008 and 2020, Republicans after 1994 and 2010 — its legislative overreach sends it back to parity. Tuesday’s midterm elections […] Read more »
Why 2022 may bring a new peak of political instability
All year, the principal question looming over the 2022 campaign has been whether Democrats could defy political gravity. As we’re nearing the end, the answer appears to be: no, or at least not entirely. Midterm elections have almost always been bad for the party holding the White House, and they […] Read more »
These Two Big Unknowns Make the 2022 Midterms Unusually Unpredictable
Here are a few things to keep in mind about the next week’s midterm elections. Let me start with a preface. The Democrats could do fairly badly on Tuesday yet still better than presidential parties have historically performed in similar situations. This could be true without the election providing a […] Read more »