How to predict an election

For as long as elections have taken place someone has tried to predict what might happen. From polls to prediction models, uncertainty is always inevitable. What’s the best way to do it? The Economist The OPINION TODAY email newsletter is a concise daily rundown of significant new poll results and insightful analysis. It’s […] Read more »

Why Do So Many Russians Say They Support the War in Ukraine?

In the month since Russia invaded Ukraine, public-opinion polls have shown a range of support among Russians for what Vladimir Putin and the country’s state media call a special military operation. … But what does public support mean in a society with no functioning political opposition, a decimated free press, […] Read more »

More Republicans have died of COVID-19. Does that mean the polls are off?

Doctors and demographers recently noticed another tragic example of how polarization shapes America: The pandemic has killed more people in the nation’s Republican enclaves than its Democratic strongholds. They explain the gap by pointing to Republican resistance to vaccines and the GOP’s more cavalier approach to combating the virus in […] Read more »

New polls confirm Democratic problems for November

The recently released March 7-13 Pew Research Center survey and the March 18-22 NBC News poll paint a grim picture for Democrats. Even worse for the president’s party, they offer little reason to believe that things will improve for Democrats before the November midterm elections. After watching his performance for […] Read more »

Ketanji Brown Jackson is the most popular Supreme Court nominee in years

… Five recent surveys have indicated strong support for President Joe Biden’s decision to nominate Jackson for the Supreme Court seat retiring Justice Stephen Breyer is vacating. According to an average of polls by Gallup, Fox, Monmouth University, Quinnipiac University and the Pew Research Center, about 53% of Americans supported […] Read more »