Politico on May 2 released Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito’s draft abortion position, signed by four additional justices, that would overturn Roe v. Wade. … The Alito draft does not just overturn the main finding of Roe, that women generally have a right to an abortion in the first six […] Read more »
Can Democrats Turn Things Around?
With just under six months to go until the November elections, the political environment looks as bleak as ever for Democrats. The President’s job approval ratings remain mired in the low 40s, inflation has proven to be stubborn and persistent, and Americans are overwhelmingly pessimistic about the country’s direction, with […] Read more »
Ping-pong Politics Is the New Normal
… The Democratic Party has moved so far to the left and the Republican Party so far right that not only is the center of gravity in each party heading toward the extremes but the parties are each getting narrower; the ideological distance between the most liberal in the Democratic […] Read more »
Pollsters prepare for major changes after presidential election misses
The polling industry is on the precipice of its biggest change in decades, as pollsters try to battle back from consecutive presidential election failures. Pollsters are increasingly embracing new methods in the run-up to the 2022 midterms after notable misses in recent races. Front of mind is the looming 2024 […] Read more »
Are We Overestimating Roe’s Impact on Politics?
Everyone has their own take on what impact a reversal of Roe v. Wade will have on November’s midterm elections. Here’s mine: To the extent that overturning the 49-year old decision benefits Democrats at all, it won’t be nearly enough to make up for the substantial headwinds they were already […] Read more »
A majority of Americans back abortion rights, but the support may be smaller than you think
Where do Americans stand on abortion rights? It’s a simple and important question, especially in light of the recent leak of a draft US Supreme Court opinion that would overturn Roe v. Wade, but one that is far from easy to answer. Issue polling in general is tricky, and the […] Read more »