… As the political scientists Joshua Kertzer and Jonathan Renshon detail in a new paper in the Annual Review of Political Science, the rise of populist movements has coincided with a rise in the use of “elite experiments” — or randomized studies using elite subjects — in academia as a […] Read more »
A Republican pollster’s advice on how to talk about the gun bill
… In the Senate Republican lunch on Tuesday, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) cited recent polling conducted for a nonprofit run by a former Cornyn aide to make the case for the gun package he’s currently negotiating. We chatted with Neil Newhouse, one of the Republican pollsters who conducted the survey, […] Read more »
What the Polls Can (And Can’t) Tell Us
For the last couple of years, I’ve stressed that when it comes to campaign polling, it’s more important to focus on the vote share each candidate is getting than it is to obsess about the margin that separates the two candidates. The fact that a candidate is ‘ahead’ of another […] Read more »
Usual Midterm Indicators Very Unfavorable for Democrats
With less than five months to go before voters elect all members of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate, the current Democratic congressional majority is facing an extremely unfavorable election environment. The party of the president typically loses U.S. House seats in midterm elections — an average […] Read more »
Donald Trump has become more popular since the January 6 Capitol attack
… Analysts like me remarked over and over again during Trump’s time in office that he was one of, if not the most unpopular presidents. He left office with the lowest approval rating of any president at the end of his first term (39%) and the highest disapproval rating (58%) […] Read more »
Asked four ways, Americans are more likely than not to want Roe v. Wade upheld
With the Supreme Court expected to issue its opinion on a key abortion case in the coming weeks, pollsters such as YouGov have worked to measure Americans’ opinions on the landmark decision of Roe v. Wade that legalized abortion access nationwide. While Roe v. Wade is not directly on the […] Read more »