In the months leading up to the Supreme Court’s ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, polls indicated that if the Court were to overrule Roe v. Wade, the resurgent abortion issue would probably help Democrats in the midterms. November is still months away, and the early evidence from […] Read more »
Has the generic-ballot question lost its predictive power?
In a notable reversal from typical trends, Republicans took the lead in polling averages of the congressional generic-ballot question in late 2021 and have remained a few percentage points ahead of Democrats since. What does that mean for November? Probably less than you think. This survey question—used because it isn’t […] Read more »
Here’s why Democrats could keep the Senate
Election Day 2022 is now four months away. Democrats are trying to hold on to slim majorities in both the House and Senate. They’re doing so against the backdrop of high inflation and an economy viewed in poor shape, which is the issue dominating voters’ minds. I’ve generally been high […] Read more »
The Christian Right is winning in court while losing in public opinion
There’s an influential minority of Americans who envision the United States as a Christian nation. Lately, this group has been making significant progress in its mission. Recent rulings from the U.S. Supreme Court reversing Roe v. Wade and protecting prayer in schools are chief among these victories. These legal wins […] Read more »
Just How Strong Will The Winds Be Blowing This Fall?
… The overturning of Roe v. Wade has raised the stakes of this election for Democratic-leaning voters like no other issue has yet to do this cycle. For the first time in 50 years, the debate about abortion access is not ‘theoretical.’ It is also not a “one-off issue.” The […] Read more »
Has Abortion Changed the Subject in the Minds of Enough Voters?
Anyone who’s sure they know what the midterm-election implications of the events over the last few weeks will be is a) a fool, b) a cheerleader, c) really new to politics, or d) some combination of those. Until there is a whole lot more polling data, certainty is folly. A […] Read more »