Nate Cohn, who covers politics and polling for the New York Times, wrote an article last month (6/3/22) comparing the results of national polls with actual ballot measures in states. His major theme was that national polls may be unreliable when they show high levels of support for various policies. […] Read more »
Biden’s low poll numbers are exactly what we should expect
When Joe Biden was elected president, a common refrain was that he would usher in a new era of “normalcy” after four chaotic years of President Donald Trump. But in certain ways, normalcy hasn’t returned. This is visible first and foremost in the inflation rate, which in May was higher […] Read more »
This may be Democrats’ only chance to blunt a red wave in November
To avoid the worst-case scenario in November, Democrats must defy one of the most powerful trends shaping modern congressional elections. Recent polls have provided them a glimmer of optimism that they might do just that. That trend is the tightening correlation between voters’ attitudes toward a president and their support […] Read more »
Democrats get bounce in polls after Roe v. Wade is overturned
The idea that “nothing matters” has become a popular refrain in American politics. After all, former President Donald Trump violated all sorts of political norms and barely saw his popularity shift during his presidency. That’s why a lot of people (myself included) were skeptical that the US Supreme Court overturning […] Read more »
The Democrats haven’t turned the midterms around yet
When the Supreme Court released its anticipated decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization overturning Roe v. Wade, Democratic leaders were mocked for their immediate response: Ya gotta vote this November. “That’s all you’ve got?” an incredulous base replied. … In short order, though, frustration at the knee-jerk “it’s […] Read more »
Why Liz Cheney is in a lot of trouble in Wyoming
Rep. Liz Cheney has become an unexpected hero for Democrats. She was one of the few Republicans to vote to impeach President Donald Trump last year, has served as one of his most vocal critics in the GOP and is the vice chair of the House select committee investigating the […] Read more »