Sometimes polling trends meet your expectations. For example, you might expect a president’s approval rating to be low when we’re dealing with high inflation and negative growth in real disposable income per capita. Sometimes, however, trends in public opinion are surprising. Even as President Joe Biden’s approval rating languishes south […] Read more »
Beyond approval numbers: GOP’s midterm prospects aren’t a sure thing
One of the most reliable rules of American politics is that a president’s first-term midterm elections are bad for the president’s party. Since 1950, the president’s party has gained seats in the first midterm only once, in 2002, the first national election after the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. […] Read more »
Pulling at Threads That May Unravel the Election Narrative
On paper, the November midterm elections should be a disaster of epic proportions for Democrats. Midterms are bad enough for any party holding the White House. When a party controls both chambers in Congress, it can be particularly treacherous. There’s no effective way to point a finger or shift the […] Read more »
Entering polling’s silly season…
Soon there will be a plethora of “horse race” polls in various races and nationally, likely showing divergent results. That is a seasonal phenomenon plus the one-two punch of the Supreme Court decision on Roe v. Wade and the compelling hearings by the House Select Committee on the January 6 […] Read more »
Primary polls can often vary widely, so proceed with caution
Last week, a poll on the Michigan Republican gubernatorial primary field showed that conservative commentator Tudor Dixon had vaulted into an 11-point lead in the race. The advantage, which was outside the poll’s margin of error, suggested she was the clear front-runner. This week, another poll of the race showed […] Read more »
Just 5 Percent Of Young Voters Strongly Approve Of Biden’s Performance
The president’s support among young voters — who generally trend Democratic — is anemic, with their level of support comparable with his numbers among whites without college degrees and white evangelical Christians. Part of the problem for Biden may be his big promises: then-candidate Biden promised transformational change, but his […] Read more »