Two months ago, the Supreme Court gave Republicans a once-in-a-generation victory in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization, ending the constitutional right to abortion. Pro-life Republicans rejoiced, and some red states immediately passed new restrictions on the procedure. The rejoicing might have been premature. Since Dobbs was handed down, nearly […] Read more »
Four’s a trend: Democrats are doing much better in special elections since Roe was overturned
A special election, on its own, cannot tell us much about the political environment. Grouped together, special elections can tell a story. And in the case of special elections for the US House since Roe v. Wade was overturned, the story is clear: The national environment has become far more […] Read more »
Growing Evidence Against a Republican Wave
At the beginning of this year’s midterm campaign, analysts and political operatives had every reason to expect a strong Republican showing this November. President Biden’s approval rating was in the low 40s, and the president’s party has a long history of struggling in midterm elections. But as the start of […] Read more »
Mitch McConnell is right. Senate Republicans have a candidate problem.
We’ve become used to displays of braggadocio by politicians (see former President Donald Trump). That’s why it’s notable when a politician admits that the political winds might not be going their way. Such was the case when Senate GOP leader Mitch McConnell said this week that Republicans had a better […] Read more »
Will an antiquated voting rule cost Republicans the Senate?
Republican Senate leader Mitch McConnell sees the writing on the wall. He thinks the weakness of his party’s Senate nominees may doom his chances of becoming Majority Leader once again. The data support his view. However, there’s a reform that could have avoided this situation – and can potentially help […] Read more »
Vibe Shift
After months of “Democrats are doomed” chatter, there’s been a definite shift in mood and momentum toward the party in power. Republicans are openly fretting about their flawed and under-funded Senate candidates, while Democrats, who not long ago were bemoaning fumbles by the White House and Democratic leadership in Congress, […] Read more »