… Democrats have been gaining ground in their bid to hold on to the US Senate and House, and Trump likely has a lot to do with it – canceling out the normal midterm penalty with his own midterm penalty. Right now, the generic congressional ballot is basically even. If […] Read more »
The shadow stalking Democrats’ improving numbers: Can polls be trusted?
Over the past two months, FiveThirtyEight’s average of congressional ballot polling has shifted from a two-point Republican advantage to a half-point Democratic one. Its average of approval polling for President Biden has gone from Biden being underwater by 17 points (that is, his “disapprove” percentage is 17 points higher than […] Read more »
Senate Rating Changes: Arizona, Pennsylvania to Leans Democratic
Key Points• We are moving the Senate races in Arizona and Pennsylvania from Toss-up to Leans Democratic on account of candidate weaknesses for Republicans in both states and what appears to be a not-as-bleak environment for Democrats.• The overall race for the Senate remains a Toss-up, with 49 seats at […] Read more »
From a Republican ‘tsunami’ to a ‘puddle’: Why the forecast for November is changing
It was a referendum. Now it’s a choice. For political professionals in both parties, that’s the capsule explanation for why the Democratic position in the midterm elections appears to have improved so much since summer began. When the election looked to be primarily a referendum on the performance of the […] Read more »
Smoking weed is now more popular than smoking tobacco
“It’s the economy, stupid,” Democratic operative James Carville once famously noted. Usually, that assertion holds when it comes to elections. But as we have seen from the changing political tides since Roe v. Wade was overturned, sometimes the economy takes a back seat to social issues. Abortion, though, won’t be […] Read more »
Biden’s Approval Ratings: How Much Do they Matter?
… I expect/hope Biden’s numbers will go up in the wake of lower gas prices and a run of important victories. However, his polling swoon this last year has been driven by two factors. Independent voters souring on his leadership and a drop in Democratic support. In 2021, Biden averaged […] Read more »