… That warning sign is flashing again: Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the same places where the polls overestimated Mr. Biden in 2020 and Mrs. Clinton in 2016. Wisconsin is a good example. On paper, the Republican senator Ron Johnson ought to be favored to win re-election. The […] Read more »
How the political tide has turned against vaping
… A few weeks ago, I noted the proliferation of smoke shops in my native New York. Part of that has to do with marijuana (more on that in a minute), but it also has to do with vaping. But while vaping is far more popular among young Americans than […] Read more »
How inflation hurts approval
Inflation is undeniably the problem of the hour. Prices are still historically high, and people are still feeling the pinch, when it comes to rent, food, and gas, all the essentials. President Biden is not doing well on this pressing issue. Even in the wake of the historic Inflation Reduction […] Read more »
Parents Beg to Differ With Cataclysmic Views of Schools
The pandemic’s long-term impact on the education of American schoolchildren is, by definition, not going to be known for many years. In the short term, however, recent headlines have suggested the impact has been quite negative. News reports have highlighted the results of the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) […] Read more »
It’s impossible to trust polls — or ignore them. Here’s how to stay sane.
It feels impossible to trust polls — and equally impossible to ignore them. The polling industry faces well-known problems: Only 6 to 7 percent of people will pick up a phone call from a pollster; polls completely failed to find segments of Donald Trump’s base in 2020; and predicting exactly […] Read more »
Democrats Winning Over the “Meh” Voter
A big reason we pay so much attention to a president’s job approval rating, even in a midterm election when the president isn’t on the ballot, is the significant correlation between voter opinions of a president and their vote choice in an election. … This year, however, Democratic Senate candidates […] Read more »