Over the weekend, Mark Blumenthal of the Huffington Post published a lengthy review of the Gallup poll’s methodology. It is a technical read, but I encourage you to give it a careful look. Blumenthal’s bottom line is that Gallup tends to place the president’s job approval rating about 2.5 points […] Read more »
Race Matters: Why Gallup Poll Finds Less Support For President Obama
… Over the past few years, however, polling junkies have noticed something curious: Gallup’s polls have produced results that appear slightly but consistently more negative to President Obama than those produced by other firms. The Huffington Post has conducted an independent analysis that confirms the phenomenon and points to a […] Read more »
The Media Doesn’t Understand Races in the States
… Obama is not enjoying a “commanding lead” in Pennsylvania – not in any meaningful sense of the term. Nor is he necessarily favored to win it. [cont.] Jay Cost, The Weekly Standard Read more »
Wisconsin exit poll: What happened?
Governor Barrett, meet President Kerry. Exit poll numbers released to subscribers just before polls closed in the Wisconsin recall election Tuesday dangled the possibility that Milwaukee Mayor Tommy Barrett (D) could win. [cont.] Jon Cohen, Washington Post Read more »
The meaning of the white vote
… Is 80 percent of the African-American vote a lot or a little? It sounds like a lot, but if you’re a Democrat heading into Election Day with just 80 percent support from African-Americans, you ought to be quaking in your boots — it’s rarely enough to win. [cont.] Mark […] Read more »
Presidential Polling in June: Flip a Coin Instead?
… Over the past eight elections, Gallup — the most recognizable of polling organizations — has only identified the eventual popular vote winner twice in its early June horse race polling. … This is not meant to cast aspersions on Gallup; rather, it’s to say that presidential races are not […] Read more »