Several polls show that over the past three years, there has been a significant change in American public opinion in favor of gay marriage. Still, those same polls suggest that, at best, the country today is about evenly divided on the issue, with just a slight majority willing to accept […] Read more »
Pollster Alan Secrest Going Out of Business
A well-known Democratic pollster alerted his clients this week that he is going out of business — less than five months before election day. Alan Secrest blamed his firm’s dire financial situation for closing after 28 years in politics. [cont.] Shira Toeplitz, Roll Call Read more »
Bloomberg pollster: Why our poll showed Obama up 13
… Why does our poll look different from other recent polls? Here are answers to a few theories posited in the last day or so about why our poll might be an outlier. [cont.] Ann Selzer Read more »
Calculating ‘House Effects’ of Polling Firms
One of the ways that our forecast model seeks to make polling data more robust is by calculating and adjusting for “house effects,” which are systematic tendencies for polling firms to favor either the Democratic or Republican candidate. … The chart below reflects our model’s current estimate of the house […] Read more »
Obama pollster: Stop obsessing over the daily horse race polls
… “The only thing that’s bouncing around are the public polls,” [Obama pollster Joel ] Benenson said. “The electorate doesn’t bounce around like that.” … Benenson argued that coverage of meaningless daily polling distracts from coverate of the actual policy differences between the candidates. [cont.] Greg Sargent, Washington Post Read more »
Q&A: Why Is Obama Winning if We’re on ‘Wrong Track’?
A new Bloomberg News poll was published today with some unexpected results — Obama leading Romney by 13. I talked to Bloomberg pollster Ann Selzer about it on the phone and we finished the conversation via e-mail. [cont.] Francis Wilkinson and Ann Selzer (Bloomberg) Read more »