Republicans hold a near-historic lead on a key midterm indicator

… We’re all used to polls that ask voters which issue is most important to them. Gallup puts the question to Americans open-ended, meaning a respondent can say anything from the mundane (e.g. inflation) to the inane (e.g. clowns). Gallup, unlike other pollsters, has another twist on that question. They […] Read more »

How to Run Surveys: A Guide to Creating Your Own Identifying Variation and Revealing the Invisible

… This paper offers guidance on the complete survey process, from the design of the questions and experiments to the recruitment of respondents and the collection of data to the analysis of survey responses. It covers issues related to the sampling process, selection and attrition, attention and carelessness, survey question […] Read more »

The disapproval derby: Biden Democrats vs. Supreme Court Republicans

What makes this midterm election different from every other? Most midterms are about the party in charge. But in this one, two parties count as incumbents: the Democrats who control the White House and Congress, and the Republicans who control the Supreme Court. GOP pollster Whit Ayres called my attention […] Read more »

Democrats are lagging among Black voters, and that could cost them in November

… Black voters tend to be a forgotten part of the discussion about general elections. The reason is simple: They have been one of the most Democratic parts of the electorate for a long time. While Joe Biden in 2020 likely did slightly worse than Hillary Clinton among African Americans, […] Read more »