… On today’s episode, Jane Coaston brings together two experts to diagnose what we’re getting wrong in both how we conduct polls, and how we interpret the data they give us. Margie Omero is a principal at the Democratic polling firm GBAO. Nate Silver, who prefers to call himself a […] Read more »
The Jan. 6 committee isn’t moving voters because the ‘Big Lie’ already did
The literal battle lines were drawn on Jan. 6, 2021, as police faced off against pro-Trump rioters at the Capitol. In the days to follow, the political battle lines formed over the importance of that day, and who was to blame. Public opinion has not shifted much since then, even […] Read more »
Will America’s Most Pilloried Pollster Get It Right Again?
In 2016, the first year of its existence, the Trafalgar Group was one of the few polling outfits to predict that Donald Trump would beat Hillary Clinton. In 2020, Trafalgar incorrectly predicted another Trump win but accurately depicted the race as neck and neck in places like Wisconsin, where many […] Read more »
As Biden’s New Drug Policy Shows, When It Comes to Legalization It’s the Political Leaders Who Are Being Led
… In 1990, only 16 percent of respondents to the University of Chicago’s General Social Survey favored the legalization of marijuana. By 2018, the most recent year with available data, the share of supporters had risen to 61 percent. The rate of increase was even higher among Democrats: from 17 […] Read more »
Polls almost always move toward Republicans in the fall
There’s little surprise so far in October. According to social media, half the world spent the weekend at a pumpkin patch, and the other half spent it debating the merits of Christopher Columbus. The usual schools lead the college football rankings. And political coverage is telling you that “the polls […] Read more »
The central tension driving the 2022 election
The choice for voters in the 2022 campaign has sharpened to the point where it can be condensed to a single phrase: Your money or your rights? Most voters continue to express strikingly negative views on President Joe Biden’s management of the economy, and for that matter, his handling of […] Read more »