… The two parties, the outside groups that are playing such a big role this year, and even some candidates themselves are so dubious about their own numbers that they are employing two pollsters for one race, using one to double-check the other. What flummoxes them even more is that […] Read more »
Examining the Effect of the Storm on Polling
In the final days of this intensely close election season, polling has taken on an added layer of uncertainty with millions of people stranded without electricity and without phones in several states. It may seem even silly or ridiculous to those experiencing the worst storm damage in their lives to […] Read more »
Sifting the Numbers for a Winner
It comes down to numbers. And in the final days of this presidential race, from polling data to early voting, they favor Mitt Romney. He maintains a small but persistent polling edge. As of yesterday afternoon, there had been 31 national surveys in the previous seven days. Mr. Romney led […] Read more »
Both campaigns say they like their positions in polls
Why wait until Election Day? A majority of Americans think President Barack Obama will win re-election, according to a Gallup poll on Wednesday. By a 54%-34% margin, the public thinks Obama will defeat Republican nominee Mitt Romney on November 6. But the actual race for the White House appears to […] Read more »
A Polling Quandary—in the Buckeye State
There is a peculiar divergence between various public opinion polls at the moment. On the one hand, Mitt Romney has built a narrow but durable lead in the national polls, averaging around a 1 percent advantage over the last three weeks. This has cheered the hearts of conservatives everywhere. Yet, […] Read more »
Status Update on Gallup Election Polling Following Superstorm Sandy
Here’s an update on Gallup’s thinking when we suspended our national daily tracking of the presidential election campaign as of Monday, Oct. 29. Basically, we reached the conclusion that Superstorm Sandy had compromised the ability of a national survey to provide a nationally representative assessment of the nation’s voting population. […] Read more »