Pollster Michael Dimock, currently Associate Director for Research, will succeed Andrew Kohut as Director of the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, which conducts surveys on politics and public policy and is the flagship project of the Pew Research Center, a nonpartisan fact tank that provides neutral […] Read more »
More Evidence Regarding Importance of Economic Fundamentals in 2012 US Presidential Election
On August 1, 2012, we prepared a forecast of the 2012 presidential vote for PS. Our model contains two variables: (1) the cumulated weighted growth in leading economic indicators (LEI) through the 13th quarter of the current presidential term and (2) the incumbent party candidate’s share in the most recent […] Read more »
How well did pollsters predict House of Representatives voting?
The 2012 election was full of surprises. For example, the Democrats not only kept, but actually expanded their Senate majority. The result in the House of Representatives was, however, more predictable than there being rush-hour traffic at the Holland Tunnel. [cont.] Harry Enten, The Guardian Read more »
Statistics win in US election
… For at least the past three election cycles, some bloggers have predicted the winner of the presidential election in each state with an accuracy that seemed to border on wizardry. Their secret? Aggregating dozens of national and state polls conducted throughout the election campaign, and applying statistics. Much attention […] Read more »
Video: Data Collection
Darrell Bricker, Global CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs, discusses data collection. Read more »
Pre-Election Polls Got it Wrong in Florida
Identified as a “Latino Influence” state due to having a large and growing Latino electorate with an otherwise competitive electorate, Florida’s prized electoral voters hinged largely on how Latinos would vote in 2012. In the weeks immediately before the 2012 election, there was a great deal of speculation about whether […] Read more »