… The debate over what makes voters choose a side this year has mostly been between economics and values, specifically between inflation and abortion. Arguments for a good Republican year point to the fact that most surveys say economics is the top issue for voters. Arguments that favor Democrats point […] Read more »
Gas prices could decide the midterms. Here’s why
Midterm election results may come down to the price of a gallon of gas. Roughly half of Americans say either the economy or inflation is the most important issue in their vote for Congress, making bread-and-butter financial issues by far the most dominant in the lead-up to the midterm elections, […] Read more »
4 reasons to be skeptical about election polling
Pollsters should worry that their profession might soon be regarded as more like astrology than political science. Reasons to take polls with a large grain of salt abound. First, the nagging sense that pollsters are “missing” MAGA voters remains, as was the case during both the 2016 and 2020 elections. […] Read more »
Control of the Senate is coming down to this hidden dynamic
Control of the US Senate will be decided next week in cross-pressured states where most voters disapprove of President Joe Biden’s performance but also express unfavorable views about their state’s Republican Senate nominee. Public polls show Biden’s job approval rating is consistently below 50%, and often well below that, in […] Read more »
Elections aren’t only about ‘the economy, stupid’ — and never were
The economy is not the singular, overriding factor that decides American elections — and it really never was. It’s not just “the economy, stupid.” … Even before most Americans have voted, there is already commentary that Democrats have lost this year’s elections because the party has focused too much on […] Read more »
Brazil’s polls were off during the first round. Now the right wants to criminalize them.
In the first round of Brazil’s closely watched elections this month, the polls significantly underestimated the support for President Jair Bolsonaro and other conservative candidates across the country. Many on the right were furious, criticizing the pollsters as out of touch with the Brazilian electorate. Now, at the urging of […] Read more »