All year, the principal question looming over the 2022 campaign has been whether Democrats could defy political gravity. As we’re nearing the end, the answer appears to be: no, or at least not entirely. Midterm elections have almost always been bad for the party holding the White House, and they […] Read more »
Checks and Balance: End of midterm
The big guns are out. Donald Trump has three rallies planned before election day. Barack Obama has popped up in several battleground states. The former presidents will, separately, converge on Pennsylvania at the weekend, where Obama will be joined by a lesser-spotted figure on the trail: President Biden. What’s at […] Read more »
Pre-election polling trends
Here is my look at the pre-election polling, as of Nov. 5, 2022. The raw polling data is from FiveThirtyEight.com, who generously allow download of their polling database. The trends are my estimates and not those of FiveThirtyEight or anyone else. I include both LV and RV poll results because […] Read more »
Planet Money tries election polling
It’s another election cycle and many are wondering: Will the polls miss again this year? Because it’s true, polling has gotten a lot tougher these days. People aren’t picking up the phone. Nobody wants to talk to pollsters. It’s becoming a crisis for the polling industry. Today on the show, […] Read more »
Why New Hampshire may deliver a Senate surprise
Political buffs have been saying for weeks that the race for Senate control will come down to three or four states: Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania, with Arizona sometimes thrown in. But is that list too limited? Political history – and a spat of late spending in the race – suggests […] Read more »
Where we are headed into Election Day
We are just a hair away from Election Day, and so much history has already happened. Sky-high inflation, the worst in a generation, the overturn of the federal right to abortion, and the results of a presidential election violently contested. All this is the political and economic context framing this […] Read more »