Do 94% of Americans know enough of about the Boston Bombing investigation to have an opinion? Quick: Write down everything you know about the federal government’s investigation into the bombing at the Boston Marathon a year ago. What? You’ve got a blank page? CONT. David W. Moore, iMediaEthics Read more »
Tracking public opinion with biased polls
The traditional gold standard of polling is probability sampling, where you contact people selected at random from a list of the population. But probability sampling isn’t so great anymore. With response rates in the 10 percent range, there is concern that the select group of people who happen to respond […] Read more »
Hitting new highs and lows on health care
Polls often diverge by a few points, but it’s rare to see well-respected polls come to opposing conclusions about the public’s take on an issue. In the last week, however, an Associated Press-GfK poll found support for President Barack Obama’s health care overhaul at a new low while a Washington […] Read more »
Analysis of Rutgers-Eagleton 2013 Pre-election Polls Released
Following inaccurate results for final pre-election polls in October 2013 (NJ Special Senate) and November 2013 (NJ Governor), the Eagleton Institute of Politics commissioned an outside study by Gary Langer of Langer Research Associates of New York to identify reasons for the outcomes of these polls. Today, The Eagleton Institute […] Read more »
McConnell Is Not as Vulnerable as He Seems
It has been a dreadful winter for Democrats as red state incumbents struggle to overcome President Obama’s sagging popularity. But there’s one person in particular Democrats still hope to beat: Mitch McConnell, the Senate minority leader. Polls say Mr. McConnell is locked in a dead heat for re-election in Kentucky. […] Read more »
Who Scares Democrats More Than the Koch Brothers? Nate Silver.
For the last few months, FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver has been largely absent from the political forecasting scene he owned in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. But that hasn’t stopped the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee from sending at least 11 fundraising emails featuring Silver in the subject line over […] Read more »