As Tuesday’s first results trickled in, Republicans saw their hopes for a red wave vanish, in what was a surprise to many onlookers — but not for the pollsters we work with at NBC News. Bill McInturff, co-founder of Public Opinion Strategies, Jeff Horwitt, senior vice president at Hart Research, […] Read more »
How Polls Did in the 2022 Midterms
Now that the votes are in and mostly counted, how did we do? We’re looking at our results and those of other pollsters. We’re also talking about how poll products like forecasters and aggregators misled people about the likelihood of a red wave. CONTINUED Poll Hub podcast, Marist Institute for […] Read more »
The Accurate Election Polls That No One Believed
… What is clear is that the polls, such as they were, provided a decent view of what was happening in most of the Senate and gubernatorial races. (The House numbers are still incomplete, but the national outcome also seems on track with what the polls predicted.) A week ago, […] Read more »
Biggest loser of the midterm elections? The media.
… Political journalists were suckered by a wave of Republican junk polls in the closing weeks of the campaign. They were also swayed by some reputable polling organizations that, burned by past failures to capture MAGA voters, overweighted their polls to account for that in ways that simply didn’t make […] Read more »
There’s a 68 in 100 chance you’ll read this article about the audience for FiveThirtyEight-style election predictions
The midterm elections in the United States are today. Who’s leading, and who’s going to win? This is prime season for FiveThirtyEight, The Economist, and others to use their own election prediction systems to try to answer those questions. They build statistical models, drawing heavily on polls and other information, […] Read more »
Pollsters sweat another Election Day reckoning
It wouldn’t be election eve if pollsters weren’t nervous. At a base level, the final surveys in the states that will determine which party controls the Senate next year fall into two camps. Polls from Republican-affiliated firms point to a GOP victory — and perhaps even a romp through some […] Read more »