It’s easy to think that people are “in it for themselves” as the saying goes, with their policy and political preferences motivated by narrow self-interest. But decades-old research shows that this often is not the case – and a new analysis we’ve conducted of attitudes about Obamacare backs it up. […] Read more »
Among Polling Firms, Only One Got the Indian Elections Right
After the final vote was cast on May 12, exit polls pointed to a win by the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party led by its candidate for prime minister, Narendra Modi. But only one polling firm, Today’s Chanakya, predicted the magnitude of both the B.J.P.’s victory and the governing Indian National […] Read more »
Evaluating the Bloomberg CCI in Predictive Analysis and Stock Market Relationships
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index (CCI) is a weekly, probability-based survey of consumer attitudes conducted continuously since December 1985. Owned and produced by Langer Research Associates, the CCI has been branded by Bloomberg L.P. since 2011. The index is closely followed for its high frequency measurement of the American public’s […] Read more »
Gallup seeks fixes after 2012 miss
Eighteen months after the Gallup Organization incorrectly showed Mitt Romney leading President Barack Obama on the eve of the 2012 presidential election, the legendary but embattled polling firm unveiled additional research aimed at fine-tuning their methodology before the 2016 campaign. Gallup conducted polls last year in New Jersey and Virginia […] Read more »
Lesson for Poll Watchers: Why 2 Virginia Polls on Medicaid Expansion can’t be trusted
Is the expansion of Medicaid taking a turn for the worse? … The poll, conducted by Christopher Newport University’s Judy Ford Wason Center for Public Policy, found a majority opposed to expansion, 53% to 42%. Two months earlier, in February, the same poll reported majority support, 56% to 38%. That […] Read more »
The United States of Metrics
… In the last few years, there has been a revolution so profound that it’s sometimes hard to miss its significance. We are awash in numbers. Data is everywhere. Old-fashioned things like words are in retreat; numbers are on the rise. … That God-shaped hole in the universe? It’s been […] Read more »