The most important lesson of the 2012 presidential campaign, in my view, was not that polling-based models are foolproof ways to assess the political environment, but instead that undisciplined ways of evaluating polls and political events can lead to flawed conclusions. On several occasions during the race, news media commentators […] Read more »
Likely Voters: Why Later Not Now
Registered voters early. Likely voters later. Public polls serve their audience well by capturing the views of the electorate at an appropriate time and communicate precisely what group of voters they are including in their tabulations. Early in a contest, before voters have focused on the candidates or the race, […] Read more »
Three-Way Governor’s Race Could Get Messy For Cuomo
Major elections in the United States are almost always two-party affairs. Yes, third-party candidates run, but they’re rarely competitive, and they almost never win. Still, there are exceptions, and the 2014 New York governor’s race may be one of them. … As I detailed earlier this week, early gubernatorial polling […] Read more »
When Polling Is More Like Guessing
Election analysts and forecasters depend on accurate polling. Unfortunately, there’s not much of it so far this cycle. Many of the surveys to date have been conducted by firms that use automated phone surveys and combine deficient sampling with baffling weighting practices. Nowhere is this more evident than in recent […] Read more »
The GOP has either a 42% or 77% chance of retaking the Senate
… If you’ve been following elections in recent years, it’s probably been drilled into you that averages of polls are usually quite accurate near the end of the campaign. But the election is still 6 months away, and polling is infrequent in many races — which presents a problem for […] Read more »
An Indirect Path to Accuracy in Election Polling
Representative Charles Rangel of New York has a nine-point lead over his nearest primary challenger, in a new New York Times/NY1/Siena College poll of likely voters. … In addition to asking residents of the state’s 13th Congressional District which candidate they planned to vote for, the poll also asked them […] Read more »