A prominent GOP poll said Democratic U.S. Sen. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire would lose her re-election bid to a Republican. Hassan won by 9 percentage points. AP Photo/Charles Krupa W. Joseph Campbell, American University School of Communication Pollsters indulged in breezy self-congratulation in the aftermath of the 2022 midterm […] Read more »
The Pollster Who Predicted a Red Wave Explains Himself
In 2016 and 2020, Trafalgar Group did what many more other pollsters could not: come close to accurately portraying America’s support for Donald Trump. In 2022, the company’s polls once again showed a picture of Republican strength, helping create a widespread impression that a “red wave” was about to crest. […] Read more »
Humility Beat Hubris (For Now)
On November 8th, humility beat hubris. The election was not a triumph for professionals of either party who, with a few exceptions, didn’t see it coming. It is hard to claim credit for something you didn’t see. Meanwhile, voters, who generally lack hubris, quietly took a stand, particularly those in […] Read more »
2022 Monmouth University Poll Recap
At the Monmouth University Poll, we have never shied away from taking responsibility when we’ve been wrong, so it only seems fair to recap when we got it right as well. However, more than taking a bow, there are lessons to be learned about election polling from our 2022 experience. […] Read more »
How Much Did a ‘Dobbs Effect’ Blunt the Red Wave?
The expectations for 2022 midterms were set early on. The Democratic Party was expected to easily lose control of the House and potentially the Senate as a result of lackluster approval ratings for Joe Biden and concerns about issues like crime and inflation. But then came the end of Roe […] Read more »
How the 2022 Midterms Became a Squeaker
… How the midterms turned out so improbably was, in many ways, a function of forces beyond Democrats’ control. A Supreme Court decision that stripped away a half-century of abortion rights galvanized their base. A polarizing, unpopular and ever-present former president, Donald J. Trump, provided the type of ready-made foil […] Read more »