… The Senate projections among forecasters using different methodologies, including those of Silver and Wang, are beginning to converge, much as I suggested they would in my previous post on this topic. That convergence is making it increasingly clear that the battle for control of the Senate is still too […] Read more »
Senate Forecasts Aren’t Obvious. Just Take a Look at Kansas.
Races for the United States Senate feature the same drearily familiar elements as presidential contests: partisan polarization, ideological predictability and voters with fixed opinions about well-known politicians. But in Senate races, those elements are all a little smaller, and matter a little less, which makes the outcome of this fall’s […] Read more »
Misreading Senate forecasts
When I was in graduate school, deconstructionism was the intellectual rage with my humanities oriented friends. One of deconstruction’s central tenets is that “all reading is misreading.” I heard it all the time, but frankly, it never meant much to me until I started seeing reactions to the plethora of […] Read more »
Why One Forecaster Doesn’t Think The GOP Will Take The Senate
Most forecasters predict that Republicans will pick up enough seats in the midterms to control the chamber. But Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Commission predicts the Democrats will hold on. NPR News Read more »
Pollsters Predict Greater Polling Error In Midterm Elections
… We wanted to see what the most prolific political pollsters had to say about their work, the election, their industry and where it’s headed. We reached out to 60 of the most active political pollsters in the country, and 26 took our survey. CONT. Carl Bialik, FiveThirtyEight Read more »
Senate Update: Lots Of Polls But Little Change
Sunday morning brought a bonanza of new Senate polls. Marist College, on behalf of NBC News, released new surveys in Kansas, Iowa and North Carolina. YouGov released its latest round of polling in every Senate race in conjunction with CBS News and The New York Times. But the polling had […] Read more »