Earlier this cycle I compared midterm elections to Mark Twain’s famous quip about history not repeating, but often rhyming. Each midterm election is unique, but there are also patterns and norms that are constants from one midterm to the next. With the dust now (almost) settled, Twain’s quote was a […] Read more »
Going into 2024, Biden has as many challenges as Trump
Since we’re starting 2024 election talk already, it’s worth discussing the current president as much as the former president. While President Biden has not yet formally announced his candidacy, he has said it is his intention to run. … Assuming he is running, Biden has some work to do in […] Read more »
Polls vs. pundits: Who performed worse in 2022?
Everyone seems to have internalized the habit of yelling about polls after elections, so it’s understandable if you didn’t notice that the good ones gave us a pretty good picture of what would happen in the 2022 midterm elections. As a pollster myself, I was frustrated by the narrative that […] Read more »
Donald Trump is at his weakest political position in years
Former President Donald Trump is giving it another go. He announced last week that he’s trying to become only the second man (after Grover Cleveland) to be elected to non-consecutive terms as US president. Trump’s move comes at a time when his political brand is at its weakest point since […] Read more »
The Pundits Blew the Midterms. Who’s Surprised?
The jury has returned a true verdict: The press and the pundits, which forecast a gaudy red wave, got it horribly, terribly, magnificently wrong. … Instead of establishing a Bureau of Shame, a wiser use of our time would be to convince editors that the election-prediction industrial complex’s skills at […] Read more »
So You Think You Can Explain The Election
The election is over. The results are (mostly) in. Time to decide what it all means. That’s a particularly popular activity in a year when Democrats pulled off something of an upset — their successes going against historical expectations and the popular narrative that suggested Republicans were set to sweep […] Read more »