Polls show that the Republicans have an advantage in the fight for control of the Senate. They lead in enough states to win control, and they have additional opportunities in North Carolina and New Hampshire to make up for potential upsets. As Election Day nears, Democratic hopes increasingly hinge on […] Read more »
Keeping polls in context
The poll was called “humiliating,” “a whopper for the ages,” a “disgrace” — I said it may have been right, at the time it was done. Five months ago, everyone was talking about Eric Cantor’s errant poll: the one that showed him 34 points ahead, before he lost by 11. […] Read more »
Senate Update: The Swing States That Never Swung
Monday featured a reasonably good set of polls for Republicans. … Republican chances of winning the Senate are 65 percent according to our latest forecast, slightly improved from Sunday. But we’ve talked plenty about races like Colorado. So let’s try something a little different: Considering those races that looked as […] Read more »
Voters Expect Republican Wins, in Kansas and Elsewhere
Polls typically ask people which candidate they want to win. But some researchers have come to believe that another question — which candidate they expect to win — produces more meaningful results. When people are asked about their expectations, some may actually give more honest answers about their own voting […] Read more »
Senate Update: The Republican Advantage Is Consistent But Not Decisive
If you’re a regular reader of FiveThirtyEight you’ll know that our Senate forecast has said pretty much the same thing every day. When we officially launched our model in early September, it gave Republicans a 64 percent chance of winning a majority in the Senate. Today, the number is similar: […] Read more »
Fear-Mongering with Polls on Ebola
Recent polls have arrived at starkly different conclusions about the level of fear among Americans over the Ebola virus. The ABC News/Washington Post poll suggests “broad worries” of an Ebola outbreak in the United States, with more than four in ten Americans personally worried about catching the disease, while a […] Read more »