… Last month, I examined the possibility that Senate polls could prove to be biased or “skewed” against Democrats. If the polls have even a modest bias against Democrats, the party’s chances of keeping the Senate would be more like 50-50. And if the polls have a more severe anti-Democratic […] Read more »
VIDEO: Meet the Pollsters
State of the 2014 Midterms Read more »
Meet the people who are still undecided on the last weekend of the election
In fewer than 100 hours, polls open across the country. In battleground Senate states, there is still a sizable percentage of the voting population that hasn’t yet decided for whom it plans to vote. Given that a number of these races are extremely close (Iowa, North Carolina) or the polling […] Read more »
FiveThirtyEight’s Gubernatorial Forecasts: A Lot Of Really Close Races
Most of our focus this year has been on the battle for the U.S. Senate. But 36 states will hold gubernatorial elections Tuesday. We hope it’s not too late to give you some polling-based forecasts of how they might turn out. CONT. Nate Silver, FiveThirtyEight Read more »
When It Makes Sense to Question Polls
I wrote an article this week headlined “Why Polls Tend to Undercount Democrats.” Reaction was fierce. A number of readers compared the article’s argument to the “unskewed” polls phenomenon before the 2012 presidential election, when many commentators argued, mainly based on their instinct about the likely composition of the electorate, […] Read more »
Bet on a Republican Senate Majority
While many races remain close, it’s just getting harder and harder to envision a plausible path for the Democrats to retain control of the Senate. Ultimately, with just a few days to go before the election, the safe bet would be on Republicans eventually taking control of the upper chamber. […] Read more »